Live Shinzo, Defending

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Prime Minister Abe Shinzo has just finished a national televised address and press conference. He offered a long explanation and spirited defense of the Special Secrets Protection Act, the law that has threatened to swallow his broader agenda*. The reasons he provided for the new law were superficially convincing, which may be sufficient to halt the skid in his Cabinet's popularity ratings (the public poll TBS was flogging prior to the broadcast showed only a minor 5 point month-on-month fall in the Cabinet support numbers but an enormous 14.5 point rise over the same span in the negative "Do Not Support" rating, devouring the "Don't know" ambivalent voters. Polarizing indeed has this Cabinet become). Anyone who spending any time examining his explanations would find the holes, such as when he used the Algeria massacre of January this year as a reason for a need for smoothed paths of communications in between intelligence services. That such communications would have had zero effect on the outcome at the natural gas plant is, of course, not something the PM is willing to concede.

In response to a question regarding the Cabinet's having lost the plot as regards economic policy, the PM gave a hearty response, listing the various spending and industrial policy initiatives passed during the brief extraordinary session. The PM indicated he appreciates that it is hard to call the just concluded session "The Diet Session For The Realization Of The Economic Growth Stategy" -- which is what he predicted in October would become the shorthand used to characterize this particularly Diet term.

All in all it was a pretty good performance. However, the PM's focusing on the votes taken, rather than on how the legislation enacted will result in the satisfaction of particular policy goals, is reminiscent of the paralytic execution disease that gripped him in 2006-07. Execution is important but it is not an end in and of itself. It should not ever be construed as a substitute for achievement.

It is hard for the PM resist the cult of execution, perhaps even harder now than in 2006-07. During this stint in office he has been spending a lot of private time with go-getter corporate executives, many of whom have only a weak grasp of politics and little appreciation of the softer arts of persuasion.

Later - NHK News has a new public opinion poll out. Support for the Cabinet fell 10 points, from 60% to 50%, over the last month, with the "Do Not Support" number rising 10 points to 35%. In terms of the parties, support for the Liberal Democratic Party fell 5.2 points from month to month, with the Democratic Party of Japan siphoning off the largest portion (+2.6% since last month) of the lost support.

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* Bad as the fight for as the passage of the Special Secrets Protection Act has been for the LDP, it has been much worse for the parties -- the New Komeito, the Japan Restoration Party and the Your Party -- that submitted the bill alongside the LDP. The stresses from having supported the Act precipitated today's fission of the Your Party, with former secretary-general Eda Kenji leading 14 fed up Diet members out in search of more strongly anti-LDP pastures. (Link)

Eyes Not On Prize

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The zing in this morning's cup of tea:

Japan third-quarter GDP revised down to +0.3 percent quarter/quarter
Reuters

Japan's economy expanded 0.3 percent in July-September from the previous quarter, government data showed on Monday, revised down from a preliminary 0.5 percent increase.

The downward revision underscores the fragile state of Japan's economic recovery, now enjoying a temporary boost from pent-up demand ahead of an increase in the sales tax next April...

(Link)

So dear Prime Minister Abe, it seems while you and your fellow legislators were expending all your energies promoting explosive growth in the number of the country's secrets and stiffening the penalties for revealing any of them, your signature economic program, the one with your name on it, has been underperforming. If after all that has been done to devalue the yen, buck up the construction sector and deliver better days for shareholders, larded atop a foundation of front-loaded consumer and corporate spending in advance of a looming consumption tax increase, the country ends up with 1.1% annualized growth in GDP, then you have a wee bit of a problem.

Unless, of course, you insist that the hiccup on the road to high growth not your fault...

Later - The New York Times is not thrilled at the quality of whatever growth is going on. (Link)

Later still - From Bloomberg, a way too hopeful headline on what are promises of progress on what has become the most important Abe so-far-undeliverable, bar none: a rise in median wages. (Link)

The Lady Is Not Amused

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This is still your honeymoon interval, Madame Ambassador. Hope you had a cheering and heartwarming Christmas.

What? You have some statement?

Please go ahead. It's a free country

Statement on Prime Minister Abe's December 26 Visit to Yasukuni Shrine

December 26, 2013

Japan is a valued ally and friend. Nevertheless, the United States is disappointed that Japan's leadership has taken an action that will exacerbate tensions with Japan's neighbors.

The United States hopes that both Japan and its neighbors will find constructive ways to deal with sensitive issues from the past, to improve their relations, and to promote cooperation in advancing our shared goals of regional peace and stability.

We take note of the Prime Minister’s expression of remorse for the past and his reaffirmation of Japan's commitment to peace.

(Link)

The Japanese text is here.

Ambassador Kennedy should not be too upset. Prime Minister Abe did not seek to humiliate her in particular. What he has done is show his fundamental indifference toward the advice given him by every U.S. government official who has met either him or Foreign Minister Kishida over the last year. He certainly has humiliated all the Track 2 emissaries he sent to Washington or those who spoke on his behalf in Washington, with the exception of course of Yasukuni rationalizer Professor Kevin Doak.

Then again, the Washington visitors and denizens know darn well that the oldest rule in politics is "You gotta dance with them what brung ya."

Today all Abe done is done danced with them that brung 'im.

Tip of the hat to Robert Dujarric for the links.

Size Matters

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Infine, un articolo sulla stampa vernacolare che spiega, almeno in parte, come mercati di veicolo del Giappone possono essere così resistenti alle importazioni.

Sono Minicars Giappone una barriera commerciale?
Preferenza della nazione per Autos ultracorte pone ostacolo per i produttori di Auto straniere

TOKYO — mercato auto del Giappone, una volta un global trend setter, è diventato uno dei più disconnessa dai mercati altrove, mettendolo a rischio di diventare irrilevante, dice i dirigenti qui.

Oltre il 90% delle vetture vendute in Giappone sono marchi giapponesi. Un terzo di loro — ultraleggero minicars — sono venduti in nessun luogo. Originariamente sviluppato per soddisfare necessità automobili economici del Giappone dopo la seconda guerra mondiale, essi sono troppo piccoli o troppo costosi per altri mercati.

Appetito singolarmente forti del paese per mezzo di consumo di carburante auto automobilistiche hanno sviluppato una serie di tecnologie avanzate, quali auto ibride, che non necessario tradurre facilmente altrove.

Il Giappone ha delle tariffe sulle importazioni di auto. Dirigenti di auto giapponesi dire che sapori unici del paese sono un grande motivo di fallimento responsabili di auto globale a prosperare nel paese del mondo terzo più grande acquisto di auto, dopo la Cina e i dirigenti di auto straniere Stati Uniti dicono trattamento fiscale preferenziale del paese minicars e sua unica sicurezza e normative ambientali sono barriere nontariff che proteggono il paese dalla concorrenza straniera...

(Link)

Era l'autore aggiunto fedeltà alla marca base regionale e keiretsu legami a sue ragioni perché i consumatori giapponesi e clienti business comprare ciò che compra, lui avrebbe coperto tutte le basi.

La coalizione di governo è impostata per cercare di livellare il terreno di gioco in termini di vantaggi fiscali di minicars. Comitato fiscale di partito Liberal democratico ha raccomandato abbassamento dell'imposta acquisizione per veicoli e alzando le tasse annuali minicar proprietari pay 50%. (Link). Produttori di minicar e i loro fornitori urlato in segno di protesta, quando le proposte è venuto prima il comitato.

Produttori di minicar, particolarmente i produttori di minicar-moto come Suzuki e Yamaha, sembrano avere poca trazione o connessione con Abe Shinzo e i suoi alleati, tuttavia. Daihatsu in teoria potrebbe essere stato in grado di piegare l'orecchio del Comitato fiscale LDP, casa madre Toyota Motors, essendo visto come membro vitale della squadra Abe grazie lode ossequioso di Toyoda Akio presidente Abenomics.

Daihatsu, è, tuttavia, il bambino problema reietto della famiglia Toyota. Toyota Motors vorrebbe davvero avere clienti Daihatsu acquisto auto di grandezza più redditizia del gruppo. Che Daihatsu non ha preso un vantaggio nella lotta contro i cambiamenti fiscali, sfruttando il rapporto Abe-Toyoda in influenza sulle delibere del comitato, non è sorprendente.

Alzando le tasse su minicars va portadisco in rispondendo le accuse di case automobilistiche statunitensi che regolamenti un ruolo in chiusura dei mercati di auto del Giappone a produttori stranieri. I cambiamenti fiscali possono pertanto essere visto come una sfaccettatura dello spettacolo politico che Giappone ha messo al fine di consolidare la sua posizione all'interno di Trans Pacific Partnership negoziati sulle tariffe del veicolo - dove si nasconde la balena bianca della politica commerciale giapponese, la tariffa del 25% degli Stati Uniti su autocarri leggeri (a.k.a., minivan).

L'aumento fiscale ancora lontano (le modifiche fiscali influirebbe solo veicoli acquistati dopo il marzo 2015) su minicars trasportare un prezzo politico. Minicars sono visti come "auto del popolo" (Ja, ist Japonishes Volkswagen!) e veicoli di vita quotidiana (seikatsu no ashi - letteralmente, "gambe di sostentamento"). Essi sono particolarmente importanti per le famiglie rurali, che hanno generalmente inferiore a reddito medio nazionale ma che necessitano di un veicolo per ogni membro della famiglia degli adulti sia per trasporto personale e traghettare merci. Aumentando i costi di possedere una minicar, o due o tre o quattro, come spesso accade, è un maleducato schiaffo in faccia agli elettori rurali. Accoppiato con il recentemente annunciato piano di eliminare gradualmente il programma di sovvenzione gentan riso nei prossimi cinque anni (Link), sembra come se il LDP è tradendo gli elettori rurali che rimasero fedeli al LDP anche durante anni del partito di declino e di esilio nel deserto politico.

Pensando che l'andamento demografico nell'agricoltura e zone rurali fanno la tassa minicar salire una scommessa per il LDP - sicura una "Così a lungo e grazie per i voti, voi perdenti"-- ignora la realtà che i consumatori più giovani sono anche grandi appassionati di minicars. Ticking off giovanili, gente che saranno voto per lungo tempo a venire, sembra stupidi, strategicamente. Il giovane, tuttavia, sono numericamente piccola proporzione di s dell'elettorato attuale che non fare di se stessi favori di inoltre non presentandosi alle urne nel giorno delle elezioni. (Link - J)

Così minicars andare ad esso, nonostante la loro estrema popolarità.

Caduta di Inose e dopo

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Tokyo Governor Inose Naoki today announced that he has informed the head of the municipal assembly of his intention to resign his office. Inose's move comes at the end of weeks of nearly incessant calls for his resignation. Inose accepted and never declared a personal no-interest, no-expiration-date loan of 50 million yen from the family owners of the Tokushukai medical empire, currently under investigation for massive violations of the nation's voting laws in last December's House of Representatives election. (Link)

Inose has, as yet, not been charged with any impropriety in accepting the private loan -- or for having returned the money in haste after the executives of the Tokushukai were rounded up and arrested. A citizens group has filed an official complaint with the Tokyo Prosecutors' Office asking for an investigation into Inose's possibly failing to declare the loan as a political donation. The prosecutors are obliged to look into the case but are unlikely to file charges. With Inose no longer in office it is possible the matter will end there. However, the citizens group can continue to hound Inose for years via the out-of-control Committee for the Inquest of the Prosecution system of citizens' indictments.

We have seen this movie too many times. An individual bubbles up from out of the murk, offering a chance to shake up the way the country operates. He then makes a mistake, or pushes too hard in trying overturn the Establishment -- and the investigators suddenly arrive. A credulous and craven media complex rushes in, broadcasting or publishing every rumor as fact, as though it were damning evidence of a criminal enterprise -- camouflaging all the while the sources whose assertions would not pass the smell test if their identities were known. The public, confused by the reporting and by inculcated and reinforced biases against rabble rousers, or desiring only that everything in life be quiet and unthreatening, abandons the previous crowd darling. Horie Takafumi, Murakami Yoshiaki, Ozawa Ichiro -- all toppled by nonsense accusations or perjured testimony. Now Inose Naoki, the most assiduous administrator the Tokyo Metropolitan Government has ever had and likely will ever have, joins the list.

That Inose's political position had become untenable became crystal clear when the Democratic Party of Japan came out against him. If there were any party or group that had a philosophical or ethical reason to call a timeout on the scrum against governor, it would be the party whose own term in power was hobbled and then cut short by the obscenely thin charges filed against the secretaries of its leader Ozawa and against Ozawa himself in 2009-11. In what is evidence of the DPJ's total lack of sense of what it stands for, the party jumped into the fray with both feet, with Assembly Member for Fuchu City Koyama Kunihiko turning in an almost hysterical performance at Tuesday's committee meeting. Party Leader Kaieda Banri, who as a protégé of Ozawa should know better, responded to news of Inose's plan to resign by saying, "Those voters who supported Inose are now forced to grasping at huge disappointment. Given that he came under a cloud of doubt, he should have resigned sooner." (Link - J)

The monumental stupidity of Kaeda's statement -- repudiating due process of law and the presumption of innocence -- reinforces the belief that the DPJ is doomed failure as long as he is the head of it.

As to why the Liberal Democratic Party and the New Komeito, which supported Inose's candidature in 2012, should so suddenly turn against him, the answer is two-fold. First, by going after Inose for accepting Tokushukai money the LDP is making a bold bid to have the public forget that the money men in this affair, Tokuda Torao and Tokuda Takeshi -- were both LDP members of the House of Representatives. It is insane to believe that skewering Inose would cover up the LDP's fingerprints on the 50 million yen -- but goodness, it seems to have worked.

The other reason why the LDP wanted Inose gone is, unsurprisingly, money. Not paltry 50 million sums from the Tokudas -- real money. The hundreds of billions of yen that will be spent on Olympics-related construction and events preparations over the next six years. Inose rose to influence though penning books on the horrible waste inflicted by government budgets and the countryside by the construction industry, working at that time hand-in-glove with the LDP. If there is an eminence grise or noire in this drama, it is the members and supporters of the LDP's Road Tribe, who have long sought a means of wreaking vengeance on Inose for having turned the country against them.

With Inose the skeptic and critic out of the way, replaced with a more pliant successor, the Olympics can become the cover story for a thousand sins and abuses.

As for who will run in the by-election to elect a new governor, several names are being bandied about. Media types and Nagata-cho hallways rats have been flogging former Health Minister Masuzoe Yo'ichi as one likely to toss his hat in the ring. The resignation of Higashikokubaru Hideo from the Diet a week ago already initiated a burst of predictions he would be in the race.

The Sankei Shimbun, which has few scruples as to accuracy or plausability, has floated the names of LDP communications director Koike Yuriko (a Shisaku favorite legislator), Abe Shinzo's body double Hagiuda Ko'ichi and dark lord Minister of Education Shimomura Hakubun as potential candidates. (Link - J)

The hapless DPJ, which has a real opportunity to score points against the LDP in the aftermath of the publicly scorned passage of the Special Secrets Protection bill, has no idea whom it might nominate (Why am I not surprised?). Some in the DPJ are reportedly thinking the party should nominate Ren Ho, the House of Councillors member who heretofore has always been the bridesmaid in all big time political post guessing games.

Having the half-Taiwanese, sharp-tongued, whippet smart, media savvy, gorgeous and still youthful Ren Ho as the governor of Tokyo would send a plethora of positive messages to the world. Domestically, however, it would be a recipe for disaster. Prime Minister Abe's most consistently applause line when in conservative circles is an sarcastic echo of Ren Ho's famous question to government-supported supercomputer scientists who worked for 10 years without building an actual machine because they could never guarantee the machine would be #1 in the world. Incredulous that the geeks had consumed hundreds of millions of yen in government subsidies without producing anything, Ren Ho asked the project administrators, "What was wrong with being #2?" [So whenever Abe talks rouses the faithful with a "Let us pledge to be #1 in the world!" he is not riffing on Ezra Vogel; he is mocking Ren Ho.]

If the DPJ was smart, which it is not, it would nominate former Tottori governor and former Minister of Internal Affairs Katayama Yoshiro. The good professor actually knows and cares about administration and has a decent respect for the people's intelligence. Admirable qualities, those.

Why the race for governor matters, of course, is not that Tokyo is the most populous city in the country, that it is host of the national government or even that it will host the Olympics in 2020. It is that Tokyo Metropolitan Government is a fabulously wealthy local government, second only in economic/political significance to the U.S. states of California and Texas.

To sit behind the governor's desk inside the Tocho is a hell of responsibility. It needs a hell of a person.

Molto bene, il cavaliere Chen

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Cavaliere dell'ordine al merito e addetto stampa ex per la Yo-jun Chen Ambasciata di Pechino ha un saggio lucido fino a The Diplomat il peculiare mix di deft e goffo che è diplomazia asiatica della Cina. (Link)

L'unico errore o errata interpretazione che vedo è nel brano:

Il fatto che la nuova zona copre le isole di Senkaku/Diaoyu disputate ha solo aggiunto al senso di crisi e Sinophobia già spumeggiante in Giappone. Alcuni osservatori suggeriscono che Cina ha infatti fatto Abe un favore. Per mesi, il leader giapponese ha cercato di convincere una nazione riluttante a dargli quasi un blank check (ad esempio una legge di segretezza di stato controverso) a drasticamente manzo sia il controllo di sicurezza interna (un incubo per i sostenitori della democrazia) e le capacità militari del Giappone. Grazie a Pechino, Abe ha ora un Parlamento molto più acquiescente. [il mio accento]

Tale ultima riga è fuorviante. L'acquiescenza della dieta ai desideri di Abe ha poco a che fare con Pechino e molto a che fare con l'enorme numero di mozziconi di partito Liberal democratico, seduti nei sedili.

Inoltre, l'implicazione che la dieta ha posto un problema per il programma di sicurezza di Abe non è preciso. Membri di dieta sono stati Johnny-come-latelies alla lotta contro la legge di segretezza. Protesta contro quel po ' eclatanti della legislazione è venuto dalla società civile: avvocati, esecuzione di artisti, giornalisti, ONG, educatori e cittadini comuni interessati. Membri dell'opposizione della dieta si alzò sul carro, solo dopo che i cittadini preso a rotazione. È stato il popolo, non di loro rappresentanti, che baulked al travolgente competenza e severità unJapanese della legge.

Che il saggio di Chevalier Chen sarebbe instabile la situazione politica all'interno del Giappone è sorprendente. Il diplomatico francese ex carriera, che oltre a Beijing aveva stint nel consolato di San Francisco e come direttore del dipartimento di fotografia del ministero (!), vive in pensione in Tateshina.

Hors de ces deux interpretazioni erronées, très bien fait, Chen Chevalier!

You Would Not Want To Be One Of His Allies

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The Yomiuri Shimbun has published an account of the events leading up Prime Minister Abe Shinzo's visit to Yasukuni Shrine two days ago (Link). If the timeline and the quotations in the story are accurate -- and there is no reason to doubt that they are -- a picture emerges of a ruthless Abe, unbound by courtesy or caution in his dealings with his most prominent political allies.

Here is the snippet on Abe's call to Yamaguchi Natsuo, the leader of the party whose House of Councillors votes Abe relies upon to guarantee the passage of legislation:

"I'll visit the shrine at my own discretion," Abe told Natsuo Yamaguchi, leader of New Komeito, the junior coalition partner of his Liberal Democratic Party, over the phone at about 11 a.m. on Thursday, about 30 minutes before he headed to the shrine.

"I cannot support that," Yamaguchi told Abe.

"I didn't think you'd agree with me," Abe said before hanging up the phone.

Abe also informed LDP Secretary General Shigeru Ishiba of his intention to visit the shrine in the same morning.

What the Yomiuri narrative fails to clarify is that Yamaguchi and Ishiba already knew Abe was on his way to Yasukuni before the PM made his courtesy calls. Major news outlets began publishing and airing alerts regarding the Abe visit 30 minutes prior to Abe's 11 a.m. call to Yamaguchi (like this story that appeared on the MSN Sankei News site at 10:26 am). Ishiba found out about the visit from the reporters covering him, when they all started shouting at him, "What is your opinion of the prime minister visiting Yasukuni?" An exasperated Ishiba replied, "Why are you all asking me my opinion of a Yasukuni visit?" The reporters shouted back, "Because it has been announced!" Ishiba, trying to appear nonchalant, turned and walked away, repeating the news to himself, "Oh, it's been announced. Hmmmm."

As for the Yomiuri's account of how Abe handled his chief cabinet secretary Suga Yoshihide -- the man charged not only with making policies happen but devising the cover stories -- that too is eye-opening. Suga's extraordinarily deft management of the policy agenda and the daily message have left many wondering whether he, Suga, is not indeed the de facto prime minister. The Yomiuri's account clearly puts Suga in a subservient role, left to devise a desperate strategy of damage control after failing to change the prime minister's mind on whether or not to visit Yasukuni. The revelation that the Abe statement on why he visited Yasukuni (Link) was devised by Suga after Abe had made his decision goes a long way to explaining the raging insincerity of Abe's post-visit address.

[An aside: I know that the theory that speakers look up and to the right when they are trying to retrieve concocted versions of events from memory has been tested and found wanting -- but gosh, it sure looked like Abe was doing just that during the NHK live broadcast.]

Running roughshod over the leader of the LDP's ruling coalition partner, the secretary-general of the LDP and his own chief cabinet secretary tells all three men Abe's thinking as to who is in charge and who walks three feet behind in this government. The rock hard treatment of Yamaguchi indicates further that the dinners Abe has had in the last month with the heads of the Your Party and the Japan Restoration Party (the latest being a three hour affair with Osaka City mayor Hashimoto Toru on the Emperor's birthday - Link - J) were not mere social get-togethers. Even after the fission of the Your Party in response to Abe's dinner with party leader Watanabe Yoshimi (Link - J), the number of seats held by the Your Party and the JRP in the House of Councillors are more than enough for Abe to tell Yamaguchi and the New Komeito, "You know, you can be replaced..."

Which is what "I didn't think you would agree with me" means, ultimately.